stocks45....XON does have some promising technology, but the stock has been the ever receding imminent bonanza.They will need to present some blowout clinical data to reverse that investor perception.
Data presented here at ASCO is positve for those with Cancer and investors, a double win. Combo drugs are demonstrating particular efficacy. Note BLUE combo with CELG showing positive results for recurring Multiple Myeloma. BLUE up +9%
Some other winners include RDUS....positive clinical data for HER Negative metastatic breast cancer. +5%
KITE along with BLUE and JUNO is another CAR-T focused firm with positive data for relapsed (recurring) leukemia. The stock response has been less than might be expected given the data. I expect lingering concern about some previously reported fatalities is an overhang. The "coffee break" talk among the clinical and academic experts here suggest that the combination of refined dosage levels and the 73% complete remission are compelling. This stock could be win in two ways. 1- The stock catches up with the opportunity 2- KITE is acquired by larger pharma's seeking to expand their Cancer franchise. Either way this could be a bargain.
LOXO +48% on the strength of positive data for 17 different types of cancer. LOXO targets cancers with the same gene defect, regardless of afflicted organ. This is a novel approach. Much work needs to be done to further refine use cases and dosages. The larger family of cancers involves some incredibly complex bio-chemistry, there is no one silver bullet. LOXO could pullback when the initial exuberance succumbs to the hard reality.
TGTX is another example of the success of combo formulations Their TG1101 combined with Abruvica (ABBV) and JNJ demonstrative beneficial results in a stage 3 trial. Based on this data TGTX is pursuing accelerated FDA approval for it's chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia drug.
RDUS...Positive Phase 1 trial data for estrogen receptor positive breast cancer. Elacestrant, well tolerated, with few low grade side effects.
INCY... Perception problem associated with formatting and presentation of data for their IDO inhibitor epacadostat combo lung cancer drug , with Keytruda (MRK). Yhis is one of the largest and most lucrative market for cancer drugs estimated @ $12 Billion. The 5% stock decline could be an opportunity for investors.
TSRO is presenting investor data after market close today. Stock down over 5%. One of the better immuno-oncology firms. Stock impacted by initial unrealized M&A euphoria. Deals are rarely announced at ASCO. This is a scientific symposium. I-Bankers and Biotech/Pharma institutional investors are well represented, but the high level deal makers are not here. This also could be a buy opportunity.
Addenda.....Just bought MZOR @ 38.59. I have been waiting for a pullback to establish a position. That opportunity manifested itself this morning.
Thanks that's why I thought it could be a solid type of speculation, I appreciate your other suggestions.
ASCO recap.....I flew back from Chicago last night headed for the Merrill Lynch Tech Conference in San Francisco where I will be performing some pro-bono services for the host. As indicated in yesterday's post, combo drugs were the real winners at ASCO. BLUE is probably the prominent example. Their combo with CELG, clinically moved the needle for later stage Multiple Myeloma patients. Blue is validating the efficacy of CAR-T and combo therapy. The stock is up +12% today after +9% yesterday, with strong confirming volume. Wall Street analysts attending the conference have started to upgrade BLUE. KITE was also well received by the peer community. JUNO by contrast has experienced some difficulties including lagging others in trial status and progress. They remain a contender....it would be a mistake to ignore them.
LOXO was the star yesterday with their gene defect targeted approach , regardless of organ. Unlike BLUE, there is some pullback in the stock today. The market is beginning to appreciate the very limited applicability and validation of LOXO's approach, currently affecting ~1% of all cancers. Additional trials could expand the use cases, but this is in the future.
Many of the larger Pharm's reported incremental clinical results, that were less impressive. BMY, PFE, Roche, LLY included. MRK is probably the best positioned big pharma, CELG has, by far, the most robust and diversified cancer franchise among the larger biotech's.
Separately, bought SINA this morning @ $ 91.05. They are an impressive China social media/ecommerce conglomerate. SINA has outperformed both the larger cap. FXI and the social/ecommerce KWEB ETF's for the past year and YTD. For shareholders as of COB today, they are spinning off a portion of their large WB investment to shareholders. WB continues to my favorite China stock.
EDIT, gene splicing, up +6% today based largely on a refutation of the unintended consequences concerns of the technology realized in a mouse study. A good summary can be found on Twitter, $EDIT, post by Gaetan Burgio.
Immunotherapy & CAR-T stocks continue to rise in the aftermath of impressive clinical results at ASCO... CLVS +2.6%, BLUE + 4%, KITE + 8.9%, JUNO + 1.2%. I have listed these in order of my assessment of their on-going prospects.JUNO was the only one on the list that "disappointed" at ASCO, but realized a sell off that was was disproportionate to its results.
Added to original IPO allocation in CLDR this AM @ $19.35. Based on the perspective of the Merrill Lynch Tech conference, a subscription based data analytic' and management firm is in the sweet spot. Revenues and guidance strong. expense management vs investment is the issue concerning investors. Stock was down ~ 15%.
Addenda..... 1-Added to position in TSRO @ $ 126.59. Strong results reported at ASCO for Zejula, a PARP inhibitor for ovarian cancer. Additionally, MRK Keytruda and JNJ are investigating the efficacy of Zejula for prostrate cancer combined with their immuno-therapy drugs. Stock is down based several valuation based downgrades. Please note that the new price targets are considerable about current stock levels, high $100's to low $200's. Secondly, JNJ is suspending it's investigation with Zeluja.
2- Added to MZOR position @ $30.66
It is often difficult to judge an ipo, or at least it is for me because I am somewhat blind without a chart. If I were watching this company, I might also watch IT as a comparison movement stock. Just recently ran across that one.
I like the concept of EDIT, but before I jump in again, I think I want to see it pull back to between 12-13.
ok thanks for your reply
Would you consider taking a position in SN?
RaceRock......Since this past Friday I have been preoccupied with analyzing a plethora of preset buy alerts that triggered, consequently my reply to you is less timely that I would have liked. More on that after I respond to your question about Sanchez Energy. I have owned SN positions in the past, but neither own stock now or have SN on my current watch list. My investments in E&P firms are currently limited to the low cost companies exclusively in the Permian Basin with a longer track record of performance. These include PXD, EOG, CXO, FANG, RSPP, REN, PTEN, As you are aware, the E&P firms trading is tethered to the
$45- $55 price of WTI. I chose the firms due to their cost structure, quality of Permian acreage, access to pipelines, and prowess in deploying state of the art extraction technology. Presently, the price of WTI is the primary factor affecting stock performance. While WTI is determinative for pricing, profitability and cash flow are related to the items listed in the previous sentence.
Stocks acquired since last Friday.
Biotech/Healthcare: TSRO $126.50, MZOR $ 30.03, VEEV $ 57.84, ISRG $892.41, IDXX $ 158.07
China: WB $ 72.06
Tech: IGV ETF $134.21, NEWR $ 40.96, WDC $ 83.25, ADSK $103.91, AMZN $ 955.37- $975 (multiple purchases in several accounts), FB $145.60- $ $147.01 (multiple purchases in several accounts), EA $ 108.01, ADBE $ 131.58, BOX $ 18.50, SPLK $ 60.39, OLED $ 113.55, CRUS $62.51.
Yesterday was a busy day multitasking between client meeting and watching the market. General conclusion, the sell off in the high growth entertainment/gaming, and specialty financials created buying opportunities. Took positions in:
Entertainment/Gaming: TTWO $ 72.82
ATVI $ 57.36
LOGI $ 35.43
LYV $ 35.79
Specialty Financial: MA $120.31
V $ 93.67
Others: RSX $ 18.54 Russia ETF
AEIS $ 71.49 Industrial
Addenda: Obviously pleased with market reaction to AMZN proposed acquisition of WFM. Before last Friday, AMZN was one of my top 3 holdings, with a average cost near $ 771. Added to that position, in several increments,1 week ago @ $ 955.37- $ 975. AMZN has now surpassed ULTA as my largest stock position.
How tight are your stops? Or do you use them.
Panther... Just acquired a position in LOXO @ $ 71.86. I have been looking for an entry point since their well received abstract presentations at ASCO.
I use a combination combination of strategies to hedge my downside, strongly influenced by if a position is core/strategic, opportunistic trading, or in between. When economic, I prefer to use put spreads, and alerts. A conscious decision to close a losing position, is preferable to automatic pilot selling. Typically, I want to understand the news flow associated with the decline. EG: Is the decline due to publication of a "Citron Research Bomb" As you are aware stops can also be triggered by a "fat finger trade". The tighter the stop the more likely to be stopped out. Wide stops can have very limited utility.
With few exceptions, I acquire or add to positions in firms, where I have a thesis and conviction. I use technical's to determine entry/exit points, but always assume that my pricing choice will be sub-optimal. Therefore, I am willing to accept some post buy decline in share price, unless either the facts change, or my analysis of the company or sector is flawed.
I have just started watching LOXO because of your ASCO report. If I were to buy it, I think I would be looking for something a bit lower. I do appreciate your reports on these biotechs as they are really wild men.
Panther.....Biotech's are indeed very volatile and are less susceptible to chart analysis than other sectors. Price movements are catalyzed by events: clinical results, partnerships, or M&A. Witness today's +40% pop in CLVS based on textbook late stage trial results for rucaparib, late stage drug for ovarian cancer. Leerink biotech analyst Michael Schmidt, described the results as " the outcome looks to be the best case scenario for CLVS". As mentioned in previous posts CLVS was my largest biotech holding before today and is now 40% higher, with unrealized profits ~ 100%. By contrast TSRO is down ~5%, partially in reaction to CLVS success.
This is why I favor a basket of biotech's. It is not possible to pick one or two blowout winners in time to fully benefit. While I have 16 discrete positions in medical technology/biotech, a portfolio of 6 carefully selected stocks, would provide a reasonable level of opportunities for success. The XBI ETF can be a supplement or substitute in the portfolio.
As previously indicated I personally like CLVS, BLUE, KITE, INCY, CELG, EXEL, TSRO, LOXO as promising biotech's....EDIT for over the horizon speculation......ISRG and MZOR for instrumentation.....VEEV for medical information technology. Others to consider RDUS, IDXX, GWPH, ICPT.
Addenda.....Bought some protection for my ADBE position. June 30 $140/$130 Put Spread for $1.40. Profit $138.60 to $130, B/E $138.60, Loss !38.60 to $140. Unprotected below $ 130. ADBE reports today after market close.
Virtually all of the biotech's listed in the previous post have been performing credibly over the past 3 days. The XBI ETF reflects that performance.
Bought BURL today @ $ 89.65 on nearly 5% pullback. I believe this is a over reaction to concern that AMZN will disrupt all store based retail. BURL recently reported a strong beat & raise quarter. This is not emblematic of a company facing business stress.
Separately, the June 30 $140/$130 Put spread insurance policy purchased yesterday, to protect ADBE gains, is now down by ~ 75%. Fortunately, ADBE reported impressive results and guidance after yesterday's close. It is always good news when insurance is not used.